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 TAF forecast reliability, flight planning

Technical Discussion - FLYER Forums - forums.flyer.co.uk
Mon Jul 17, 2017 12:03 am

#1546758

TAF forecast reliability, here's an example I've seen today.

Farnborough TAF (16/7/17)

at

TAF at 08:03Z

TAF EGLF 160803Z 1609/1618 27008KT 9999 BKN013 BECMG 1609/1612 SCT018

TAF at 10:58Z (this was the one I checked before my flight)

TAF EGLF 161058Z 1612/1619 27008KT 9999 BKN021 PROB30 TEMPO 1617/1619 8000 -SHRA

My flight finished at 15:00Z, then I saw this, front was arriving 2 hours earlier......

TAF AMD EGLF 161510Z 1615/1619 27008KT 9999 SCT025 TEMPO 1615/1619 8000 -SHRA

Simple solution for this case was to plan for the worse item in the TAF, so it was sill flyable.

How reliable is TAF for flight planning?

Any tips for flight planning apart from assume the worse item in the TAF will happen and check the 215 chart for fronts?

thanks

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

There was cold front moving North to South at 15 knots
Date: Jul 17, 2017   


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